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Weren't there walls back in the 90s?I would rather bet on a new tech leap than to go by federated designs at this stage.


Yes, there were walls back in the 90s and yes, we managed to break through them. However, the walls we face today look much nastier. I concede that there's no way to know the future, but nonetheless I'd put my money on a sharply slower rate of improvement for CPUs.

In the short term, it would be great if we had a breakthrough in x-ray power sources (for cheaper EUV lithography), a breakthrough in etch control (for vertical transistors), or a breakthrough in III-V materials (for a one-time mobility improvement).

But long term, we need to find an alternative to the transistor. Perhaps spintronics, perhaps non-von Neumann architectures, who knows. But there is no way that a paradigm-changing redesign will be competitive with silicon in the next 10 years. Silicon has a humongous advantage in manufacturing, supply chain, know-how, scaled production, etc. Even if we find a better technology (and we haven't) it may still take decades to get there.




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