I just voted blue in Texas today, so we'll see. But, probably keep your expectations low(ish).

Early vote turnout in Texas outpacing past elections, fueled by Democratic primary voters - Texas Tribune https://www.texastribune.org/2026/02/25/texas-early-voting-t...

Would it be the Senate seat that would be jaw dropping? Or what exactly should I follow?

James Tallerico is seen by many as a bit of a bellwether for how Trumps coalition with the religious right will hold. He's a Presbyterian minister who makes quite a big deal out of opposing Christian nationalism. If he can win Texas it would signal a lot of trouble for MAGA and Republicans in general.