Yeah it's just a matter of how you evaluate the threat model, I might get hit by a wormable zero day, but I also think even in that case there's a good chance I see people flipping out on HN before I actually get hit and run the update manually. I think the odds of a vuln that materially effects my LAN are low, and actually I could lose my whole computer right now and I think I would still be vastly up on time saved over the past 10 or so years that I've been strongly anti-update.

Also worth pointing out that disabling most kind of updates reduces your threat surface quite a lot. If your system isn't pulling updates there's a much lower chance of malicious code getting in that way.