I don't disagree with Fred Wilson, but I'm closer to pg's perspective on this. The bubble, to the extent that there was one, burst while we weren't looking.
Facebook's IPO is not really a huge issue in and of itself, and as Wilson points out the numbers they have are staggering. Other IPOs, like GroupOn's, have had similar issues and FB will probably look pretty awful by the time they reach the end of their lock-up period too. But this stuff is largely all indicative of market sentiment, and that's the issue.
People aren't necessarily disappointed with the performance of any of these companies, but they are getting very twitchy as investors. When people stop investing, and sentiment becomes increasingly bearish, it's like the tide going out and inevitably some boats will end up getting beached.
I know from companies attempting to raise capital in London right now that things have been difficult for a while now, and look set to get even more difficult (not that London is necessarily the greatest place for doing this, or a good barometer) - so those companies that have done decent rounds recently (HailO, BagThat, etc) will probably need to baton down the hatches somewhat, and those who were expecting to raise later this year / early next are probably in for a shock - a nasty one, if they can't operate without a raise (I know at least a couple of companies in that exact position).
Facebook's IPO is not really a huge issue in and of itself, and as Wilson points out the numbers they have are staggering. Other IPOs, like GroupOn's, have had similar issues and FB will probably look pretty awful by the time they reach the end of their lock-up period too. But this stuff is largely all indicative of market sentiment, and that's the issue.
People aren't necessarily disappointed with the performance of any of these companies, but they are getting very twitchy as investors. When people stop investing, and sentiment becomes increasingly bearish, it's like the tide going out and inevitably some boats will end up getting beached.
I know from companies attempting to raise capital in London right now that things have been difficult for a while now, and look set to get even more difficult (not that London is necessarily the greatest place for doing this, or a good barometer) - so those companies that have done decent rounds recently (HailO, BagThat, etc) will probably need to baton down the hatches somewhat, and those who were expecting to raise later this year / early next are probably in for a shock - a nasty one, if they can't operate without a raise (I know at least a couple of companies in that exact position).