It's tricky stuff, best to befriend a local installer so they can help you choose. In the end after doing all the numbers for our house the simplest solution for the next two years (as long as we still have netmetering) was to install ample solar and postpone the heatpump that way by the time we will buy the heatpump the solar installation will already be halfway towards being paid off, with the current electrical rates here the ROI on solar is incredible, and running a heatpump off the solar system in the winter isn't very effective, at a minimum you'll need a battery set up for that. But even in October we managed to be net positive with respect to the grid which helps to offset the cost of the gas.

But in 2025 it will be a completely different story which will likely require yet another investment. I'm kind of wondering how people that can't just do that kind of thing are going to cope, it is a worrying development. Of course it doesn't help that the measures to control the prices of energy here effectively benefit the large producers at the expense of the people that decided to go for heatpumps early on.

But as long as the countermeasures still split by gas and electricity usage it is to our advantage to get as close to the cap as possible on natural gas. Ridiculous, but the difference is too large to ignore.