Why does Putin try to invade parts of Ukraine ? What's its interest ? Is it economical ? is it for interior politics ? is it to destabilize Europe ? does someone can conjecture a bit ?
A Russian-speaking democracy on their border is unacceptable to them. It will serve to help Russia itself to become a democracy which again is unacceptable to them.
That, plus the giant hubris of the 'Empire' mindset that he has, and frankly exists in Russian culture and there you have it.
Russian Imperialism is of the fairly classical kind. 'We are Great, and Strong, Superior, and those around us are lesser, weaker, and naturally our vassals' kind of thing.
It's entirely fair to be cynical about the West, and to use some degree of moral relativism, but in reality, it's very different in North America / Angloshphere + Europe than in Russia. And China.
If we don't 'do something' then we can assume Taiwan is next for much the same reason.
I usually avoid posting here as I see far more intelligent people on this forum. Since you asked for conjecture...
I'd recommend Caspian Report's video [1] first. Secondly, if we look at Cuban missile crisis, US had a strong reaction to missiles around them. I see the Russian reaction pretty similar. They do not want NATO expansion and they do not want missiles in Poland.
- Ukraine is the entry door to the russian heartland, and as such has always held central importance to the russian military doctrine.
- Russia still has the internal view of a superpower, but they aren't anymore, Putin wants to reclaim lost glory.
- Ukraine becoming a successful democracy right next to Russia would further delegitimize his own regime.
- There's a grain of truth in the lie that russian Ukranians are discriminated against. Ukraine is very regionally divided on wether to have a pro-western or pro-russian government. [0] The pro-russian rebels are certainly supported and probably also instigated by Russia, but they do hold support among the local population in the far east.
This is also my expectation of how the conflict will play out: Russia will bomb Ukraine, invade from all sides in a limited capacity, but with the strategic goal of crippling Ukraine and conquering the whole regions of Donetsk and Luhansk. When those two regions are secured, I suspect a ceasefire wille be reached. That said, I've been wrong before, I truly did not expect Russia to just brazenly invade like this.
Cultural encroachment (think monroe doctrine), nato encroachment (think Cuban missile crisis). Less important but probably considered: geopolitically Russia needs buffer states in the east because there's no natural defenses/borders. It's an easy invasion from that direction.
Key quote: “Russia is always anxious about foreign penetration – not only in terms of military involvement and political engagement but also in cultural terms,” Fasola told FRANCE 24. He pointed to the so-called “colour revolutions” that brought pro-Western governments to power in Georgia (2003) and Ukraine (2004) – and which the Kremlin perceived as “instruments of the West to drive those countries away from Russia”.
Also Ukraine has massive coal reserves (that's where the name Donbas comes from) and some of the richest agricultural land in the world.
This assumes that Russia tries to capture and hold ground though and we've seen how insurgency wars have worked out for the Russians and Americans for the last 3 decades.
Putin's opinion is that the eastern regions of Ukraine that have been controlled by Russian troops for years now and have separatists there vying for annexation by Russia belong to Russia, not Ukraine (after all, they once did).
Ukraine doesn't agree. It's also widely theorized (basically fact) that Putin has fomented revolution and supports separatist movements to gin up trouble and incite problems in those areas to further make his case.
It's a land grab, and possibly a precursor to something much more. But only time will tell.
It was originally part of the USSR. Putin has said many times he thinks breaking up the USSR was a huge mistake and wants to re-acquire those territories.
But yeah why does anyone start a war? Power, control, money, distraction, madness, idealism, etc. Probably a little of everything.
Putin said in his recent speech that he thinks Lenin made a mistake in breaking up the Russian Empire into independent nations (that then joined the USSR). I think Putin is more after restoring the old Russian Empire than restoring the USSR.
Lots of different takes on this, but I don't think Putin is as imperialistic or "crazy" as he's made out to be. Much of the problem is that the US promised Ukraine (and Georgia) that they could become a NATO member. From Putin's point of view that's the US expanding their influence right up to Russian's doorstep. While the cold war is over, it's not like "the west" (broadly speaking) and Russia ever really become allies.
In a perfect world Ukraine should of course have the freedom to join NATO; but it's not a perfect world and we can't wish Putin or general Russian attitudes away. All of this could have been avoided if we just rescinded the NATO invitation (or better yet, never made it in the first place) and have Ukraine remain a neutral "border state".
I don't like Putin or Russia's attitude one bit by the way; but when the stakes are this high you really have to deal with reality as it is, not as you want it to be. Ukraine not joining NATO would have been a minor inconvenience at best; Ukraine at war is a much bigger deal, especially for the Ukrainian people. We kinda screwed them over in a game of international politics.
Ukraine could not not join NATO after Crimea and Donbass war in 2014.
Before 2014, less than 70% of Ukrainians supported joining NATO, according to polls. About 30% supported actually joining Russia, and 60% supported a union with Russia.
Everything changed in 2014, when Russia unilaterally invaded Ukraine. Less than 3% support joining Russia, and about 70% support joining NATO. After 2014, they realized Russia will never stop, so NATO was their only option (it's actually NATO that didn't want to accept them, as they worry about safety of all its members).
"President Bush also assured Gorbachev during their meeting in Malta in December, 1989, that if the countries of Eastern Europe were allowed to choose their future orientation by democratic processes, the United States would not “take advantage” of that process. (Obviously, bringing countries into NATO that were then in the Warsaw Pact would be “taking advantage.”) The following year, Gorbachev was assured, though not in a formal treaty, that if a unified Germany was allowed to remain in NATO, there would be no movement of NATO jurisdiction to the east, “not one inch.”"
IMO (I’m no expert by any means): I think this is about Putin wanting to leave a legacy. He’s getting long in the tooth now, and wants to be remembered for reshaping Russia’s borders.
The problem with this analysis is that it's not 24 hours ago any more and Russia has started shelling Kyiv, which only makes sense if Russia is planning to take control of the entire country.
Also let's drop the propaganda line of "protection". Luhansk and Donetsk may have declared independence but we generally don't tend to recognize such claims unless they are affirmed by the host nation. It's also an open secret that the separatists include a significant presence of Russian soldiers posing as Ukrainian "volunteers".
Would you be okay with France attacking Spain to "protect" Catalonia? Ireland invading the UK to "protect" Scotland? A shared language and culture does not grant the right to annexation either, or are you arguing Germany and Austria should reunite and annex parts of Switzerland?
Not approving any of this, from the recognition of the republics to the further attacks and yeah he's obviously gone beyond that protecting the people and is striking Ukraine's army too.
I hope that it doesnt lead to a more widespread war.
It already is a more widespread war. Putin has launched a full-scale aggressive war against Ukraine from 3 sides (Donbas, Belarus, Crimea) + amphibious landing forces.
You should look up sometimes the types of characters, e.g. Pushilin for instance, that Russia installed to govern those territories. They are murderous sociopathic criminals, comparisons with territories ruled by cartel gangs are appropriate. It isn’t governments - its no-limit gangs, supported by Russia.
