Web 1 had a lot of ideas that failed because they were too early, not because they were inherently bad ideas. Not sure if Metaverse will work exactly like SL did, or if its even the right idea, but it certainly will have a larger audience and lower cost of entry for both users and developers.
This is the correct answer. Lots of old ideas were in fact horrible ideas, until suddenly they weren't. Cannons were awful, right up till Napoleon proved otherwise.
I think people are so skeptical due to a combination of disliking Facebook and the usual "overestimating the impact of years, underestimating the impact of decades."
Wouldn't it be remarkable if 2021 happened to get the web exactly right? Think of it: in 3021, people will be using Twitter just like they do now, with Chrome and plugins and all the rest.
Projecting forward helps dispel your own preconceptions. And then you conclude "Why not build it now?" -- There's often not much standing in the way, except a whole lot of work (along with a fair bit of luck).
It seems like most of us just don't want Facebook to own the next Twitter. Admittedly, that's a scary proposition.
I suppose my advice would be to become comfortable with that sooner than later. Zuck has never gotten big bets wrong. It's possible this will be the first, but I wouldn't want to take the other side of that bet if my money was on the line.
It's hard for me to imagine one of the incumbents leading the next generation of innovation, despite the copious amounts of capital to execute it. They view the world through their own Overton window, such that the next leap forward will originate from some perspective independent of their own. Brick-and-mortar stores weren't going to be the ones pushing online sales. A lot of the last few years have been copy/paste product ideas from other smaller social media companies: that's the reality. FB realized not everything has to be a timeline. At best, Meta could be something truly novel, but at its worst, it's just marketing to paper over the lack of innovative Product leadership within FB.
Meta can buy fresh blood. Oculus was acquired. Parts of Oculus were acquired and acquihired. If a smaller company innovates in this space, acquisition by Meta is an obvious business plan. Zuckerberg is a geek almost young enough to be my kid. If I can imagine a thriving metaverse, and I can, I don’t see why he can’t.
