Upload is probably much less than half of dropbox's bandwidth. If multiple users have the same file, it only needs to be uploaded once; but it needs to be downloaded every time someone syncs a directory containing it to a new machine.
About 90% of Tarsnap's bandwidth is inbound... but most of Tarsnap's AWS costs are for storage, not bandwidth. Backup services tend to store a lot of cold data.
Tarsnap's upload costs cover the actual bandwith costs, the per-operation cost of S3 PUTs, the SimpleDB operations for checking account balances, some data storage (when you delete data, you stop paying for it; but I pay until the garbage collection job reaps those blocks)... there are lots of costs. The bandwidth was a significant part of it, though.
I need to crunch some numbers and see how the economics work out before I can commit to anything, but I'm certainly looking at adjusting the pricing.