This isn't a precise way of thinking about things, but I really think the most important part of maintaining the success of a social network is being "cool", or rather, being the social network that cool people use.
I don't know the data, but my assumption is that facebook's user count isn't really continuing to grow among young people in developed countries. Like it or not, this demographic is usually what defines what it means to be cool. Would people in Indonesia and India join Facebook if it were mostly old people and people from their own countries? I doubt it - they would know what young people in other countries truly prefer, plus they would likely be better served by a local alternative. Would old people join Facebook if their children and younger relatives used something else? I doubt that too.
Facebook wanted to grab Snap, and did grab Instagram, so that it could maintain its monopoly on the social media that "cool" people use. All we need is more companies like Snap not willing to be bought out for Facebook to see a big hit in this market segment. I think that's the long term threat to Facebook
> Would people in Indonesia and India join Facebook if it were mostly old people and people from their own countries
Shockingly, people join networks that are used by people they know and their circle of friends is in their own country, for most part. If you think young Indian people are desperately trying to copy what's cool in America you'd have to explain why Whatsapp has been (and continues to be) the dominant network in India, despite being a minor player in America.
> I really think the most important part of maintaining the success of a social network is being "cool", or rather, being the social network that cool people use.
Facebook hasn't been "cool" in almost 10 years. Their IPO was in 2012, and like pretty much any other teenager would've at the time, I thought it was about to die off because our moms were starting to use it.
I don't know the data, but my assumption is that facebook's user count isn't really continuing to grow among young people in developed countries. Like it or not, this demographic is usually what defines what it means to be cool. Would people in Indonesia and India join Facebook if it were mostly old people and people from their own countries? I doubt it - they would know what young people in other countries truly prefer, plus they would likely be better served by a local alternative. Would old people join Facebook if their children and younger relatives used something else? I doubt that too.
Facebook wanted to grab Snap, and did grab Instagram, so that it could maintain its monopoly on the social media that "cool" people use. All we need is more companies like Snap not willing to be bought out for Facebook to see a big hit in this market segment. I think that's the long term threat to Facebook