Re: investing in solar producers and a coming shakeout
This makes me think of some interesting structural economic issues I hadn't considered before.
Compared to the global distribution networks of hydrocarbons, distributing PV panels is uncomplicated and a lot less bulky. On the other hand consolidation in the industry and eventual economies in scale of production could point to less diversification at the lowest levels of supply compared to a system where individual wildcatters, new tech like fracking, and even cartel members (and outlaws/terrorists) undermining their quotas have a not insignificant effect on the cycles of energy pricing and supply.
Even technology with a well-defined trend toward decreasing prices like RAM or hard drives have this complication if you need to make your purchases right after floods in Thailand, or at the wrong time when a standards for RAM are coming into effect or stopping production.
With a small number of huge suppliers, and decades long replacement cycles leading to boom and bust cycles for the industry, it could be as difficult for users to plan energy supply needs as it has been when it comes from mismanaged areas of the world.
This makes me think of some interesting structural economic issues I hadn't considered before.
Compared to the global distribution networks of hydrocarbons, distributing PV panels is uncomplicated and a lot less bulky. On the other hand consolidation in the industry and eventual economies in scale of production could point to less diversification at the lowest levels of supply compared to a system where individual wildcatters, new tech like fracking, and even cartel members (and outlaws/terrorists) undermining their quotas have a not insignificant effect on the cycles of energy pricing and supply.
Even technology with a well-defined trend toward decreasing prices like RAM or hard drives have this complication if you need to make your purchases right after floods in Thailand, or at the wrong time when a standards for RAM are coming into effect or stopping production.
With a small number of huge suppliers, and decades long replacement cycles leading to boom and bust cycles for the industry, it could be as difficult for users to plan energy supply needs as it has been when it comes from mismanaged areas of the world.