And that is the gist of the problem, isn't it? As we approach our forties and beyond, chances are we have lived more than half our lives. So do I really want to spend hours watching something I might hate and might leave a bad taste in my mouth? (See game of thrones season 8 or worse, Westworld the HBO series which I don't even want to know what happened in season 3 or 4). I am sure there are people who will enjoy those but for the average person it is highly unlikely.
Ok so it worked correctly today, for you. How do we know it will continue to do so five years down the road when they are suffocating for cash? The more stuff we have there, the harder it becomes to verify their takeout will have everything.
I'm trying to motivate one or hopefully both of these ideas
- if it is worth backup up or exporting, it is worth doing it early and often
- but more importantly if we backing up and exporting, we should be continuously thinking are we even on the right platform? Does a better alternative exist?
How bad it is if put of 200+ conversations, a couple of those are not exported correctly? Not much honestly.
If I verify some of those and they are ok, I would see no reason to keep verifying all of them.
> At Amirkabir University of Technology in Tehran, students dressed in black shouted “Long Live the Shah,” a reference to Reza Pahlavi, the exiled son of Iran’s last monarch, who has emerged as a leader of the recent protests.
This is unfortunate and gives the regime a chance to say "see, these people are puppets of the monarchy".
I feel like the people who want a monarchy installed are trying to fish in troubled waters.
Not puppets of the monarchy per se but at least some of them may be puppets of foreign actors who are backing the monarchy.
Honestly very hard to say, I don’t know what to believe about the Iran situation. I think it’s pretty much impossible to get a good understanding of it from a western country
1) Iran's government has not done a good job of running the country and is therefore genuinely unpopular among a significant percentage of the population.
2) Iran's current government has powerful enemies (US, UK and of course a country in the Middle East all really hate the Iranian regime) and those enemies are actively trying to destabilise it.
So it's really hard from the perspective of being in a western country to work out how much of the protests are genuinely endogenous to Iran and how much is an intelligence operation, because it's clearly not 0%
> it's really hard from the perspective of being in a western country to work out how much of the protests are genuinely endogenous to Iran and how much is an intelligence operation, because it's clearly not 0%
Intelligence assets are generally covert. It's incredibly difficult to engineer a protest–particularly in a repressive regime–out of nothing. Like half of the CIA's history in the Cold War was trying and failing to do this.
Why are people even debating this ? Mossad themselves admitted to supporting protests on the ground. Pompeo even boasted about Mossad agents "walking beside" protesters - they were fully confident that they would successfully engineer regime change.
"Go out into the streets together. The time has come. We are with you. Not just from a distance or through words. We are also with you on the ground." -> Mossad.
That's what I'm saying though, it's not out of nothing, people have legitimate grievances and at the same time there is probably at least some foreign influence. It's not either/or, it's (probably) a bit of both.
But like I said, I'm not there, so I don't know the truth and there's no way for me to find it out.
My basic point is just that you can't trust what you read in the papers because the Soviet Union is not the only state to engage in propaganda
> It's not either/or, it's (probably) a bit of both
It's never purely one or the other. But it's also never predominantly foreign action. Again, it's incredibly difficult to do that, and not for lack of trying.
> It's incredibly difficult to engineer a protest–particularly in a repressive regime–out of nothing.
No. It may have been difficult to do so in the past for the CIA (or other foreign powers) because they had limited avenues to directly influence foreign citizens as they had limited control over foreign media or foreign communication platforms (to control the flow of information).
Today, a large part of both communication and media in nearly all countries happen over the internet, a medium that has been usurped by western tech companies. The role of online social media (like Facebook and WhatsApp) in fomenting riots and genocide is well documented and researched (e.g. genocide in Myanmar).
Look at all the meaningless so called "youth protests" (youth who obviously have grown up consuming media and, communicating on the internet) that have happened in India, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bangladesh or the "colour revolutions". (India was the only exception where it didn't turn violent because its then leaders knew how to genuinely deal democratically with the protestors, but it still resulted in India's democratic fall as it allowed a right-wing authoritarian leader to capture power). In Sri Lanka, Nepal and Bangladesh the protests became directionless violent "revolutions" to overthrow an elected government, and illegally transfer power to a bunch of inexperienced "leaders". Then (like what has happened in Bangladesh) they seek to exclude and ban certain political leaders and / or political parties from participating in a new "democratic" election, ensuring an easy win for the opposition. It is then claimed what a success this "democratic" youth revolution has been (and used as fodder to brainwash the youths in some other country).
Youths are easy targets here because they are hooked to the internet and are politically naive.
China was quite astute in this aspect to ensure that their internet didn't fall into the hands on western tech companies. They made sure that their own tech companies dominated in China, and were ruthless in not allowing western tech companies to compete successfully. This is why the west has found it so hard to foment any similar "online social media" revolutions there. And why the west were so obsessed about getting control over TikTok. (Note that this has nothing to do with "democracy" - it's a political necessity that if you want to be a sovereign country and do not want a foreign power to have influence in your country, it is essential to ensure that foreigners don't control your media or communication platform. This is why everyone's talking about "digital sovereignty" and banning teens from social media).
(Sadly, it isn't just the "west" - every country is now using the internet against nations they consider hostile, and doing some form of information warfare to influence foreign elections).
> gives the regime a chance to say "see, these people are puppets of the monarchy"
Regime isn't the messaging target. Foreign actors are. And rightly or wrongly, desperate people will choose the icons they have, and the set to choose from is generally those that are helping and those the current regime despises. The first set is scarce. So we're left with the second.
The points are valid, but why the personal insults?
Re: the grandparent comment.
"Javid Shah" is one of the main chants of the recent protests. It's not particularly specific. Reza Pahlavi is the main figurehead of the opposition. He's a likely candidate to preside over a transitional government if this new revolution succeeds.
The regime's positioning is largely irrelevant now. The people are liable to adopt the opposite position simply because they see the regime as their enemy.
You guys are talking about copyright but I think a bigger takeaway is there is a process breakdown at Microsoft. Nobody is reading or reviewing these documentation so what hope is there that anybody is reading or reviewing their new code?
I guess the question to leadership is that two of the three pillars , namely security and quality are at odds with the third pillar— AI innovation. Which side do you pick?
(I know you mean well and I love you, Scott Hanselman but please don't answer this yourself. Please pass this on to the leadership.)
I worked at Microsoft for many years and blogged there.
Microsoft was unique among the companies I worked for in that they gave you some guidelines and then let you blog without having to go through some approval or editing process. It made blogging much more personal and organic IMO; company-curated blog posts read like marketing.
I didn’t see the original post but it looks like somebody made a bad judgment call on what to put in a company blog post (and maybe what constitutes ethical activity) and that it was taken down as soon as someone noticed.
I care much less about whether the person exercised good judgment in posting, and don’t care (and am happy) that there was not some process that would have caught it pre-publication.
I care much more if the person works in a team that believes that copyright infringement for AI training is a justifiable behavior in a corporate environment.
And now we know that is a thing, and I suspect that there will be some hard questions asked by lawyers inside the company, and perhaps by lawyers outside the company.
I remember back in 2004 or thereabouts, Microsoft was all in on blogging. There was content published about internal blogs. Huge swaths of people working on Vista (then, Longhorn) were blogging about all sorts of exciting things. Microsoft was pretty friendly with people blogging externally, too: Paul Thurrott comes to mind.
It feels out of character for a company like Microsoft to have such a policy, but I agree that it's insanely cool that some very cool folks get to post pretty freely. Raymond Chen could NEVER run his blog like that at FAANG.
Raymond generally discusses public things and history. That's allowable plenty of places.
Bruce Dawson was publishing debugging stories (including things debugged about Google products done as part of his job) for the entire time he was working at Google: https://randomascii.wordpress.com/
> Nobody is reading or reviewing these documentation so what hope is there that anybody is reading or reviewing their new code?
Why do you assume that reviewing docs is a lower bar than reviewing code, and that if docs aren't being reviewed it's somehow less likely that code is being reviewed?
There's a formal process for reviewing code because bugs can break things in massive ways. While there may not be the same degree of rigor for reviewing documentation because it's not going to stop the software from working.
But one doesn't necessarily say anything about the other.
Regardless, their point is that the argument seems faulty. Indeed, their docs going unreviewed seems moot to whether the code goes unreviewed, given there are much stronger reasons to review code than there are to review documentation; as they wrote, bad documentation doesn't automatically break your application when it's published (there's at least a few more steps involved). Your statement's accuracy is not exclusive to the illogic of an argument which agrees with the statement.
> I don't know if you are just playing devil's advocate
Indeed, that is playing Devil's Advocate but one should remember that such Advocacy is performed to make sure that arguments against the Devil are as strong as they can be. It's not straightforward to see how simply repeating an assertion helps to argue for the veracity of it.
>> I realize BSOD is no longer nearly as common as it once was
Anecdotally, installing wrong drivers (in my case it was drivers for COM-port STM32 interaction) could make it as common as twice a day on Win11.
While my windows server 2008 still doing just great, no BSOD through lifetime.
I agree that for a common user BSOD is now less likely to happen, but wonder whether it's less to do with windows core, and more with windows defender default aggressive settings
At another BigCo I am familiar with any external communications must go through a special review to make sure no secrets are being leaked, or exposes the company to legal or PR issues (for example the OP).
Likely it wouldn't get written at all. The most useful aspect of layered approval processes is people treat them like outright bans and don't blog at all unless it's part of the job description.
If they have the documentation... With Microsoft probably the answer to that is yes, but more often than not documentation is simply absent. And in cases like this not being too aware of where the lines are is probably a great way to advance your career.
Reviewing docs is a lower bar than reviewing code because it's a lower bar than reviewing code.
I have never even heard of a software company that acts otherwise (except IBM, and much of the world of Silicon Valley software engineering is reactionary to IBM's glacial pace).
I'm not saying docs == code for importance is a bad way to be, just that if you can name firms that treat them that way other than IBM (or aerospace), I'd be interested to learn more.
I'm not sure we're talking about the same thing, maybe my use of "lower bar" was ambiguous, and I realize now it has a dual meaning.
What I'm saying is, you have to review code to get it out the door with a certain degree of quality. That's your core product. That's the minimum standard you have to pass, the lowest bar.
In contrast, reviewing documentation is usually less core. You do that after the code gets reviewed. If there's time. If it doesn't get done, that's not necessarily saying anything about code quality.
Even if it's easier to review documentation, that doesn't mean it's getting prioritized. So it's not a lower bar in the sense that lower bars get climbed first.
Whilst I understand it shows a break down somewhere, it a bit of a stretch to extend that idea across their entire codebase.
Organizations are large, so much so that different levels of rigor across different parts of the organization. Furthermore, more rigorous controls would be applied to code than for documentation (you would assume).
Yea, I have a post up there from a couple decades ago (maybe? I haven't looked, I don't know if they keep stuff up forever) and I guarantee you my code went through more review than that post did.
On the contrary, getting away with breaking the law is most of the innovation in the past decade. Look at Uber and AirBNB, and cryptocurrency, and every AI company.
The chrome browser and the v8 engine are innovations. The Go language is an innovation. Pet cameras, simple as they are, are an innovation.
Uber is a rebadged taxi service with seedier people than before.
AirBnB is a less disguised but still rebadged B&B service with seedier people than before.
Charlie Munger said it best. Cryptocurrency is like seeing a bunch of people trading turds and saying to yourself "well.. I don't want to miss out!" The seediest of all people.
AI doesn't even really exist by any common definition. They have supremely weak and power hungry language models trained on terabytes of stolen data and reddit conversations.
Hell, watching a guy hammer himself in his own nuts on youtube is an innovation, and I think I'm going to go do /that/ now instead of being depressed. Watching "ow my balls" and baitin'. What's left?
Bitcoin and shitcoin holders being among "the seediest of all people" while the Western oligarchy mailed each other the most vile things that probably happened iRL leaves a bitter taste. Don't know if you really thought this through.
If you're into cryptocurrency you should have /some/ pause over the fact that child pornographers, drug dealers and murderers all share your love of the technology. I'm sure that's just coincidence.
The people also drive cars, go shopping, have gardens, play online games and generally use the internet and use the same money as you do whenever. Now what?
I also use Tor, try to keep my stuff secure, just as they do.
Yeah, I recently stumbled on some other devblogs post very similar in quality to the one that was linked here, which was basically wholesale plagiarism of a stackoverflow answer. I found it while searching for an error message.
Context size helps some things but generally speaking, it just slows everything down. Instead of huge contexts, what we need is actual reasoning.
I predict that in the next two to five years we're going to see a breakthrough in AI that doesn't involve LLMs but makes them 10x more effective at reasoning and completely eliminates the hallucination problem.
We currently have "high thinking" models that double and triple-check their own output and we call that "reasoning" but that's not really what it's doing. It's just passing its own output through itself a few times and hoping that it catches mistakes. It kind of works, but it's very slow and takes a lot more resources.
What we need instead is a reasoning model that can be called upon to perform logic-based tests on LLM output or even better, before the output is generated (if that's even possible—not sure if it is).
My guess is that it'll end up something like a "logic-trained" model instead of a "shitloads of raw data trained" model. Imagine a couple terabytes of truth statements like, "rabbits are mammals" and "mammals have mammary glands." Then, whenever the LLM wants to generate output suggesting someone put rocks on pizza, it fails the internal truth check, "rocks are not edible by humans" or even better, "rocks are not suitable as a pizza topping" which it had placed into the training data set as a result of regression testing.
Over time, such a "logic model" would grow and grow—just like a human mind—until it did a pretty good job at reasoning.
Upvoted, as it basically 99% matches my own thinking. Very well said. But I, personally, would not predict a breakthrough in this direction in the next 2-5 years, as there is no pathway from current LLM tech to "true reasoning". In my mental model LLM operates in "raster space" with "linguistic tokens" being "rasterization units". For "true reasoning" an AI entity has to operate fluently in "vector space", so to speak. LLM can somewhat simulate "reasoning" to a limited degree, and even that it only does with brute force - massive CPU/GPU/RAM resources, enormous amount of training data and giant working contexts. And still, that "simulation" is incomplete and unverifiable.
I would argue that the research needed to enable such "vector operation" is nowhere near the stage to come to fruition in the next decade. So, my prediction is, maybe, 20-50 years for this to happen, if not more.
> I would like to see the day when the context size is in gigabytes or tens of billions of tokens, not RAG or whatever, actual context.
Might not make a difference. I believe we are already at the point of negative returns - doubling context from 800k tokens to 1600k tokens loses a larger percentage of context than halving it from 800k tokens to 400k tokens.
That's not an achievement. Even a non intelligent low to mid end compact SUV such as a 2024 Mazda CX30 has cruise control that can detect cars stopped ahead to slow down, stop if necessary, and continue when the car in front starts moving.
I'm just saying that "it avoids a collision" by not ramming into people or cars is table stakes and it makes us look incompetent if we tout it as a flagship feature.
You say that but we’ve had cars that can do what you describe for a decade and yet actual autonomous driving is still waiting.
Not failing due to a software or hardware issue is way more complicated than just usually working.
Avoids a collision is similarly way more difficult than just detecting a stopped car. What needs to happen when a car blows out a tire at speed isn’t just slam on the breaks for example. At scale cars need to adapt to the conditions and drive defensively not just watch what’s directly in front of them.
My guess is there is some communication going out to every "manager", even the M1, that says this is your priority.
For example, I know of an unrelated mandate Microsoft has for its management. Anything security team analysis flags in code that you or your team owns must be fixed or somehow acceptably mitigated within the deadline specified. It doesn't matter if it is Newton soft json being "vulnerable" and the entire system is only built for use by msft employees. If you let this deadline slip, you have to explain yourself and might lose your bonus.
Ok so the remediation for the Newton soft case is easy enough that it is worth doing but the point is I have a conspiracy theory that internally msft has such a memo (yes, beyond what is publicly disclosed) going to all managers saying they must adopt copilot, whatever copilot means.
1. Person who cares 2. Person who is knowledgeable 3. These two must be the same person!
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