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> I think they excel at outputting echoes of their training data that best fit (rhyme with, contextually) the prompt they were given.

Just like people who get degrees in economics or engineering and engage in such role-play for decades. They're often pretty bad at anything they are not trained on.

Coincidentally, if you put a single American English speaker on a team of native German language speakers you will notice information transference falls apart.

Very normal physical reality things occurring in two substrates, two mediums. As if there is a shared limitation called the rest of the universe attempting to erode our efforts via entropy.

LLM is a distribution of human generated data sets. Since humans have the same incompleteness problems in society this affords enough statistical wiggle room for LLMs to make shit up; humans do it! Look in their data!

We're massively underestimating realities indifference to human existence.

There is no doing any better until we effectively break physics, by that I really mean come upon a game changing discovery that informs us we had physics all wrong to begin with.


The fact there are a lot of people around who don't think (including me at times!) does mean LLMs doing that are thinking.

Much like LLMs writing text like mindless middle managers, it doesn't mean they're intelligent, more that mindless middle managers aren't.


> Just like people

I understand that having model related vocabulary borrow similar words we use to describe human brains and cognition gets confusing. We are not the same, we don’t “learn” the same we certainly don’t use the knowledge we posses in the same way.

The major difference between an LLM and a human is that as a human, I can look at your examples (which sound solid at first glance) and choose to truly “reason” about them in a way that allows me to judge if they’re correct or even applicable.


how’s your reasoning different from LLM reasoning?


What humans are known to do, and apparently there is no limit to what they won't, is anthropomorphizing. I think there's not been a single one of these discussions where someone inevitably says LLM's don't do X as well as a human and someone interjects in cult-like fashion.


slopbros need to keep vibing


Obviously. You are not exactly the same as your nearest neighbor but have similar observable traits to outside observers.

But since you end up trying to differentiate yourself from an LLM in vague, conceptual qualifiers, not empirical differences, what it means to "reason" ...I am left uncertain what you mean at all.

An LLM can reject false assertions and generate false positives just like a human.

Within a culture too individual people become pretty copy paste distillations of their generations customs. As a social creature you aren't that different. Really all that sets you apart from other people or a computer is a unique meat suit.

Unfortunately for your meat suit most people don't care it exists and will carry on with their lives never noticing it.

While LLMs have massive valuations right now. Pretty sure the public has spoken when it comes to the differences you fail to illustrate actually mattering.


> While LLMs have massive valuations right now. Pretty sure the public has spoken when it comes to the differences you fail to illustrate actually mattering.

Are you seriously using market valuation as an indicator of worth?


I think I've read that book... but I distinctly remember the plot was a lot more engaging.


The American public is no different than an American corporation; trying to extract as much allegiance and loyalty as possible for as little compensation as possible.

Your neighbors in the street protesting for comprehensive single payer healthcare? Yeah they're perfectly fine leaving your existence up to "market forces".

Copy-paste office workers everywhere reciting memorized platitudes and compliance demands.

You're telling me I could interact even less with such selfish (and often useless given their limited real skillset) people? Deal.

America needs to rethink the compensation package if it wants to survive as a socio-political meme. Happy to call myself Canadian or Chinese if their offer is better. No bullets needed.


>I think we'll eventually get to the point where these are real time and have consistent representations

You have a dangerously low opinion of your fellow man, and while I sympathize with your frustration, I would humbly suggest you direct that anger at owners of companies/politicians, rather than aim it at your everyday citizen.


Maybe some folks (ahem) disappearing into virtual worlds is a good thing for those left behind.


The biggest impact to engineering jobs is end of ZIRP fueled trickle down Ponzi schemes.

It's why Elon and others had been pushing the Fed to lower them.

Am in my late 40s working in tech since the 90s. The tech job economy is way closer to the pre-2010s.

Whole lot of people who jumped into easy office job money still living in 2019.


Imagine a ZIRP 2.0 where a vast majority of the population already knows what to expect and how to game the system even harder. If you think the pump-and-dump happening in now in a non-ZIRP environment are bad...

It ain't coming back. Not in a similar form anyway. Be careful what you wish for, etc.


That was the COVID economy wasn't it?


"...demand for their robots..."

Demand for Tesla products is tanking.

Demand for humanoid robots not made by Tesla may rocket. Who knows.


If the humanoid robots are no better than the cars, it's unlikely. Unitree and Boston Dynamics are pretty much there in terms of solving the hardware problem, and the rest is software and the hardware manufacturing learning curve.

The Chinese are massively out-manufacturing Tesla in the electric car market - would you bet on Tesla somehow being better than the Chinese at manufacturing?

The rest as I said is software; given Tesla's consistent lack of success in "Full Self-Driving", would you bet on them outengineering the rest of the world in the software aspect of robotics?


Tesla's biggest factory is in China.


Tesla is good at building big factories. The Cybertruck (total sales ~46k) factory was designed to build 250k units a year and later 125k. Meanwhile BYD outsells Tesla in China and globally.


Over the last five years Tesla has made a profit of about $41 billion while BYD has had a loss of about $13 Billion. Would rather be the Apple of electric cars than always selling them at a loss.


It's fiat wealth so... write the ledger however.

The majority don't care so long as they have enough food and shelter and healthcare.

The whole scoreboard based on bank accounts is all made up wankeroo.

Let's just have AI avatars fight for gloating rights; Goku beat Superman on PPV so Japan gets to host the inter dimensional cable world cup! And otherwise keep the biologically essential logistics flowing cause that collapse is when the meat suits will toss aside socialized truths of history and go crazy primate.


> It's fiat wealth so... write the ledger however

I'd like to see a serious study about the word "fiat" and whether it has been used to make a single valid economic argument in the last 30 years (auto maker excluded)

Just kidding, I know it has not.


The whole point of it seems to be to dismiss the entire economic system in favor of something that almost nobody has bought in to like bullion or cryptocurrency or somesuch for the benefit of the speaker. Currency, even paper currency, is one of the most pervasive societal "grand illusions" that we share. But that isn't necessarily a bad thing as it greases the entire system of exchange for literally everyone everywhere.


Well, history has those uniquely medieval (or early modern) situations where kingdoms adopt fiat currencies just before they fail. I dunno how much academics discuss those.


Well, history has those uniquely medieval (or early modern) situations where kingdoms adopt fiat currencies and don't fail. I dunno how much academics discuss those


Yeah, so funny how they say "fiat" but never say "shiny metals"


The judges of validity will be the architects of the current system.


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