Now, gold might not continue growing, but D.C. hasn't fixed its problems that are causing gold to rise, so I do have a degree of confidence that it will recover quickly.
Everyone is focused on commodities and ignoring basically the entire global market got shook today. Bonds, indices, commodities, and securities all got tanked. Nothing in my portfolio was in the green today, and I generally invest conservatively since it’s my (maybe, hopefully, someday) house down payment at stake.
That said, I agree with you that this feels like a bunch of prominent exits to convert paper profits into actual ones. The underlying problems remain and will become increasingly exacerbated as the year drags on.
I figure I’ll recover losses by this time next year if I just refrain from panic selling.
Kind of a good, non-political, encapsulation of one thing that's majorly wrong with the internet nowadays. Somebody that has so little clue what they're talking about is coming here, posting messages, and having as much voice to manipulate the minds of others as, for example, some tenured economics professor does. No way to tell the two types of people apart, the posts looks the same, know way to know what experience/knowledge/credentials the poster has. Now imagine all the people posting their thoughts in regards to something like the latest middle east conflict - what percentage of those posters know any better what they're talking about than this guy does about economics?
I mean, you can always evaluate the arguments instead of going by authority. It is not like famous economists or professors are always right.
But if we take statements at face value and do not think critically… Also there are bad actors trying to push a direction. One cannot assume one account equals one person.
I'm not sure a 6 month window with a squished Y axis to make the graph a perfect 45 degree angle line means much. How it compares to currencies and other assets would be more interesting.
I grew up drinking well water, and had an ever-growing mouthful of cavities. In junior high I had more teeth with fillings than without. That mercifully ended when the dentist prescribed daily fluoride tablets for me and my brother.
Anyone who thinks banning fluoride is a good idea, you don't have a single clue what you're talking about. Not one.
> I also think it's interesting that the 2008 mortgage crisis was very close to becoming just as bad as the great depression, but fiscal policy prevented that.
Compare unemployment in the Great Depression vs Great Recession:
Fiscal policy certainly did help, but the Great Recession probably would have still been significantly smaller than the Great Depression for several reasons.
(I suspect the Great Recession is more analogous to the Long Depression of the late 19th century, in that both of them significantly worsened inequality, while the Great Depression reduced inequality. I suspect whenever the US starts dealing with its mountain of debt, the resulting recession/panic/depression will also reduce inequality, though I doubt too many people will be cheering that when it happens).
> Compare unemployment in the Great Depression vs Great Recession:
The second chart I linked does exactly that. The point is to not look at the absolute numbers because, the unemployment trend in 2008 was reversed by fiscal policy, but during the great depression there was no such intervention.
Until the central banks intervened, unemployment was tracking almost exactly with the great depression.
You also can't compare the absolute unemployment numbers for a lot of other reasons. A major one is that unemployment (The U6 number, i.e. "real unemployment") in the first half of the century was consistently 10%+ higher than it is today. That's because of less women in the workforce.
In 1929, the workforce was considered fully employed with an unemployment rate (U6) of 15%. In 2008, we considered a fully employed workforce to be just 5% unemployment.
No. My brother suffered acute liver failure following a diagnostic procedure to check his brain after having brain cancer surgery. He survived two weeks. And they were a horrible two weeks.
If you're looking for a good predictor, look at the 10 yr/2 yr yield curve. When it inverts, a recession normally follows in 12-24 months, and it will likely invert in March.
The smart money has been getting out of the market for some time. But you can't sell unless someone else wants to buy. So at the end of the business cycle there is usually a blizzard of "the economy will keep doing good" articles contrary to common sense, trying to get the rubes to buy so the smart money can bail, await the crash, and then buy the stock back at pennies on the dollar.
If gold continues growing at the same rate as the last 6 months, it will take gold all of a month and a half to get back to where it was.
https://i.imgur.com/bRAy1FB.png
Now, gold might not continue growing, but D.C. hasn't fixed its problems that are causing gold to rise, so I do have a degree of confidence that it will recover quickly.